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Breast Cancer Research

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Breast Cancer Research's content profile, based on 36 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Surprisal-based large language models reveal immunologic insights in lobular breast cancer

Majumder, B. P.; Linak, J. A.; Adamson, R.; Aguilera, R. L.; Agarwal, D.; Reitz, Z.; Loiselle, S.; Devarakonda, S.; Clark, P.; Paulson, K. G.; Stanton, S.

2026-08-31 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361365 medRxiv
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In large data sets discovery is often limited to pre-conceived hypotheses and data fishing. Here we tested whether systematic exploration of AI generated hypotheses could uncover clinically meaningful signals in extensively studied data. We deployed AutoDiscovery, a newly launched large language model (LLM) framework designed to search for hypotheses based on surprisal and systematically interrogate complex datasets, on The Cancer Genome Atlas breast cancer cohort. The system did not identify clinically meaningful novel findings without human input. However, a seeded warm-start run with minimal text input from an oncologist revealed multiple interesting and surprising hypotheses. Among these was that a robust immune signature was present across all subtypes of invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) that exceeded invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). This observation was independently validated in independent cohorts and confirmed by high-sensitivity multi-immunofluorescence tumor tissue analyses. These results suggest immunotherapy approaches should be tested in ILC including early stage ER+HER2- ILC; these patients are currently excluded from large neoadjuvant immunotherapy trials. They further demonstrate that surprisal-based hypothesis generation frameworks can extract previously unappreciated patterns from deeply interrogated cancer datasets and imply that disease domain experts working with LLMs can derive more meaningful insights from complex data than either could achieve alone.

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Spatial mapping of loco regional recurrences and disease related outcomes in breast cancer patients with Internal Mammary Node (IMN) positivity at presentation treated with a curative intent using moderately hypo-fractionated radiotherapy

Chowdhury, D.; Chatterjee, S.; Chakraborty, S.; Mahata, A.; Vashistha, B.

2026-09-03 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361095 medRxiv
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Purpose/Objective There is paucity of data reporting outcomes of breast cancers with initial internal mammary nodal involvement and no visceral metastases, treated with curative hypofractionated radiotherapy . We report the outcomes from a tertiary centre alongside spatial patterns of recurrences in the above group Material/Methods For this retrospective cross-sectional study, consecutive patients contoured as per the ESTRO 2013 guidelines, treated between 2016-2022 were eligible if their diagnostic imaging demonstrated involvement of the internal mammary nodes. Radiotherapy (40 Gy/15#/3 weeks) was delivered to the residual breast / thoracic wall, SCF region corresponding to the ESTRO lymph node level 4 and internal mammary chain nodes. Residual IMN/ level 4 nodes received a boost of 10Gy/5#. Spatial mapping of sites of recurrence at the local site and three nodal sites (axilla, SCF and IMN) was performed using deformable image registration. Sites of recurrence at the local site and three nodal levels were contoured separately. Volumetric intersection of the recurrent gross tumour volume (GTV_recurrence) with treated clinical target volume (CTV) was calculated. Actuarial overall (OS), disease free survival (DFS) & cumulative incidence of local (LR), regional (RR) and loco-regional recurrence(LRR) were calculated using Kaplan Meier method. Univariate comparison of outcomes with or without residual disease was performed using the log rank test. Results The median age of the 61 eligible women was 49 years. 77% received neoadjuvant chemotherapy and the rest adjuvant chemotherapy. 82% patients had a mastectomy. Axillary lymph node dissection was done in 96.7%. Boosts to residual IMN and SCF nodes were delivered to 21(34.4%) and 2 (3.3%) respectively. Median follow up was 3.6 years. Out of the 61 patients, 42 patients were disease free with an estimated 3 year disease free survival of 75% (95% CI 64, 88%). Spatial mapping of locoregional recurrence was possible in all but 1 patient with local (only) recurrence who was lost to follow-up after mammogram only. Among the patients with loco regional recurrence 1 had recurrence in local site + SCF +axilla, 3 had recurrence in the SCF+axilla, 2 in the SCF+IMN and 1 in the axilla+SCF+IMN. Only one patient had isolated axillary recurrence or isolated SCF recurrence. There were no IMN only recurrences. Among the 8 patients with nodal recurrence, a total of 27 individual GTV_recurrence were identified in the axilla(n=11), SCF(n=11) and IMN (n=5). IMN recurrences showed complete or partial overlap with CTV. SCF recurrences were a mix with predominantly in-field recurrences while axillary recurrences occurred outside the treated volume.Four (6.6%) patients had Grade 2 lymphoedema as documented late side effect. Conclusion Aggressive treatment of IMN disease with adjuvant radiation is effective with good locoregional control. Systemic recurrences are common and may benefit from intensification strategies.

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The Role of Distress-related Metabolic Dysfunction in Ovarian Cancer Development: a pooled case-control study

Lin, N.; Balasubramanian, R.; Menichetti, G.; Eliassen, H.; Trabert, B.; Avila-Pacheco, J.; Townsend, M. K.; Terry, K. L.; Clish, C. B.; Tworoger, S. S.; Zeleznik, O. A.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361473 medRxiv
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Background: Evidence suggests chronic distress influences ovarian cancer (OC) etiology and metabolomic profiles. Here, we evaluated the association of a metabolite-based distress score (MDS) and OC risk. Methods: We included two matched case-control studies nested within the Nurses' Health Studies (N=584) and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (N=348). Metabolites were measured 3-27 years before diagnosis using liquid-chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. We examined the association of quintiles of MDS and 19 constituent metabolites with OC risk using unconditional logistic regression and stratified by tumor histotype, menopausal status, and age at diagnosis. Results: We observed women in the highest versus lowest quintile of MDS had an increased OC risk (OR=1.62,95%CI=1.03-2.54,ptrend=0.07), and type 2 tumors (OR=1.71,95%CI=1.03-2.83,ptrend=0.11). Associations were suggestively stronger for premenopausal and <69-year-old women, and driven by pseudouridine, and N2,N2-dimethylguanosine. Conclusion: Our findings suggest chronic distress-associated metabolic dysregulation may represent a novel OC risk factor, especially among younger women.

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Multiplexed FRET-FLIM Profiling of Immune Checkpoint Interactions Predicts Response to Atezolizumab in Urothelial Carcinoma

Camacho, L.; Cacho-Navas, C.; Agüero, J.; Batmunkh, B.; Gracia, J. M.; O Sullivan, K.; Rementeria, M.; Miles, J.; Gumuzio, J.; Aguirre, F.; Martin Algarra, S.; de Andrea, C. E.; Parker, P. J.; Calleja, V.

2026-09-03 oncology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361904 medRxiv
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Immune checkpoint inhibitors targeting the PD-1/PD-L1 axis have shown great promise in treating bladder cancer and are now part of the standard treatment for advanced disease. However, many patients still fail to respond to treatment and at present many biomarkers are assessed but have yet shown only limited results. Therefore, with the advent of combination treatments and the increase of immune related adverse event, the search for reliable predictive biomarkers is paramount. Using a multiplexed enhanced FRET-FLIM based technique (QF-Pro) we quantified the interaction of PD-1/PD-L1, CTLA-4/CD80 and TIGIT/CD155 immune checkpoints in a pre-treatment TMA of 46 patients treated with atezolizumab. The association between higher PD-1/PD-L1 ICP interaction state and treatment efficacy was demonstrated in the male sample cohort, where it identified patients with better PFS. Conversely, patients exhibiting higher CTLA-4/CD80 engagement had a worse response to atezolizumab. Remarkably, the dual assessment of patients with high PD-1/PD-L1 and low CTLA-4/CD80 allowed to identify the best responders. These results indicate that the monitoring of patients immune profile in urothelial carcinoma might be critical in identifying patients who may benefit from combination therapy.

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Tumor-adjacent B cell infiltration stratifies recurrence risk in localized prostate cancer

Wang, B.; Mukherjee, S.; Baj, A.; Trostel, S. Y.; Lis, R. T.; Whitlock, N. C.; Ku, A. T.; Heyward, K. E.; Kartal, S.; Wang, K.; Voznesensky, O. S.; Calagua, C.; Siddiqui, J.; Martin, R. S.; Kollath, L. A.; Custer, J.; Michael, P. D.; Kunju, L. P.; Lake, R.; Harris, C. C.; Aldape, K. D.; True, L. D.; Tatsuoka, C.; Fertig, E. J.; Chinnaiyan, A.; Gurram, S.; Pinto, P. A.; Weiner, A. B.; Morrissey, C.; Salami, S. S.; Einstein, D. J.; Balk, S. P.; Sowalsky, A. G.; Ruppin, E.

2026-08-31 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361718 medRxiv
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Background: Biochemical recurrence (BCR) occurs in 20-40% of men after radical prostatectomy. Existing postoperative recurrence risk tools based on PSA and pathology are clinically useful but show only moderate and variable discrimination, highlighting the need for biomarkers that improve risk stratification and consequent treatment decisions. We hypothesized that the prostate microenvironment, including both the tumor and non-cancerous adjacent tissue, may contain prognostic features associated with adverse postoperative PSA outcomes. Methods: We assembled a cohort of matched tumor-adjacent benign and tumor prostate tissue from 243 men across three institutions to establish a discovery cohort (n=123; 43 postoperative PSA events, 35%) and validation cohort (n=120; 46 events, 38%). For primary binary analyses, a postoperative PSA event included BCR, defined as two consecutive postoperative PSA values >=0.2 ng/mL, or PSA persistence. We performed RNA sequencing of matched tumor-adjacent benign and tumor tissues, quantified immune signatures, and developed an integrated model combining the adjacent-tissue B-cell signature, preoperative PSA, and radical prostatectomy Gleason score (BRIGADE). CAPRA-S-adjusted Cox analyses excluding recurrence-time-0 cases evaluated time to BCR, and CD19 multiplex immunofluorescence provided tissue-level confirmation (n=10). Results: In prostatectomy specimens, tumors from patients without a postoperative PSA event were enriched for B-cell transcriptional programs, whereas tumors from event-positive patients showed elevated proliferation signatures. B-cell-related transcriptional programs were correlated between tumor and adjacent tissue. Tumor-adjacent benign B-cell scores were higher in no-event cases and discriminated postoperative PSA-event status in PCBN discovery (AUC 0.63) and BM validation (AUC 0.81) cohorts, outperforming numerous other immune-related signatures. In CAPRA-S-adjusted Cox sensitivity analyses excluding recurrence-time-0 cases, higher adjacent-tissue B-cell activity was associated with reduced recurrence risk in PCBN (HR 0.42, 95% CI 0.19-0.94; BH-adjusted p=0.035) and BM (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.30-0.95; BH-adjusted p=0.034). Tissue-based validation showed that CD19+ B-cell density in adjacent benign tissue was higher in no-event than event-positive patients (median 0.1145 vs 0.0471; p=0.008). BRIGADE achieved an AUC of 0.68 in cross-validation and 0.83 in independent validation, compared to AUCs of 0.54-0.63 and 0.44-0.78 for the tested clinical predictors, respectively. At the fixed classification threshold, the validation-cohort odds ratio for BRIGADE was 2.75. The adjacent B-cell score remained associated with lower odds of a postoperative PSA event after adjustment for PSA and Gleason score. Conclusions: B-cell infiltration in tumor-adjacent benign prostate tissue may complement existing clinicopathologic models for stratifying adverse postoperative PSA outcomes and subsequent BCR after radical prostatectomy. The transcriptomic signal was recapitulated by CD19-based tissue staining, supporting further development of a pathology-based assay.

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Hybrid risk scores integrating polygenic and clinical variables for endometriosis prediction

Goroshchuk, O.; Koller, D.

2026-09-03 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361798 medRxiv
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Background: Endometriosis affects approximately 10% of reproductive-age women and is associated with substantial diagnostic delay and heterogeneous symptom presentation. Prior machine-learning prediction models have relied on comorbidity data alone or on small candidate-variant genetic scores, with inconsistent or incompletely reported performance. No study has combined a well-powered, multi-ancestry polygenic risk score (PRS) with environmental, reproductive, and symptom data in a single hybrid model. We developed and evaluated hybrid risk-prediction models integrating a genome-wide, multi-ancestry PRS with clinical and symptom data for endometriosis in the US-based All of Us Research Program. Methods: Among 69,376 participants (15,382 endometriosis cases, 53,994 controls) across six genetically inferred ancestry groups, we computed individual-level PRS values using PRS-CS weights derived from an independent, multi-ancestry GWAS. Five nested logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost models progressively added age, ancestry, and within-ancestry genetic principal components (Model 1), environmental and reproductive factors (Model 2), symptom and comorbidity indicators (Model 3), all covariates combined (Model 4), and PRS x environment interactions (Model 5). Performance was assessed by AUROC in a held-out test set and 5-fold cross-validation, with class-weighted, Youden-optimized thresholds used for sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values; permutation importance identified top contributors. Pairwise AUROC differences were tested with a Holm-corrected DeLong-type test. Results: Discrimination improved from AUROC 0.63 (PRS, age, ancestry, principal components) to 0.72 for the full model, driven mainly by symptom and comorbidity data. XGBoost consistently outperformed logistic regression and random forest. The PRS ranked among the top individual predictors by permutation importance in nearly every model, alongside age, while genetic and demographic information alone gave only modest discrimination, and PRS x environment interactions did not improve on environmental factors alone. Threshold optimization yielded balanced sensitivity and specificity (~0.67/0.65) versus near-zero sensitivity at a default threshold. Conclusions: Combining the PRS with symptom and comorbidity data gave the best discrimination compared to solely a well-powered, multi-ancestry PRS as a predictor of endometriosis. This study clarifies both the promise and current limits of hybrid genetic-clinical prediction for endometriosis and points to symptom-based phenotyping, molecular subtyping, and external validation as priorities.

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Genome Profiling of Actionable Cancer Targets (NYU LG-PACT) for Clinical Patient Molecular Diagnostics and Treatment

Yang, Y.; Vasudevaraja, V.; Serrano, J.; Mohamed, H.; Kelly, S.; Jour, G.; Gindin, T.; Park, K.; Jones, D.; Feng, X.; Pinnell, J.; Mclennan, S.; Tin, M. Y.; Tsirigos, A.; Snuderl, M.; Wrzeszczynski, K. O.

2026-09-01 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361341 medRxiv
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Next-generation sequencing (NGS) for the detection of somatic variants has become the method of choice in a variety of molecular oncology fields and in the clinic. Its use ranges from sequencing entire tumor genomes and transcriptomes to targeted clinical diagnostic gene panels. The NYU Langone Genome PACT (Profiling of Actionable Cancer Targets, LG-PACT) assay is a qualitative in vitro diagnostic test that uses targeted next generation sequencing (NGS) of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor tissue matched with normal specimens from patients to detect gene alterations in a targeted panel covering 606 genes and the TERT promoter. Indications for testing are cancer (solid tumors and hematological malignancies) where a mutational profile from multiple genes would be informative for disease stratification, prognosis, or treatment options including targeted therapies and eligibility for clinical trials. The test is intended to provide information on somatic mutations including point mutations, small insertions/deletions (indels), and copy number aberrations for diagnostic and treatment decisions. LG-PACT is a United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) cleared diagnostic test (510K: K202304). The clinical interpretation of sequencing data of molecular tumor markers from NGS encompasses automated variant calling tools with human interpretation. This final mostly manual review of data step is intensive, involving highly trained scientists, encompassing literature review, interpretation and clinical tier classification by pathologists, who then provide a complete molecular diagnostic report to the treating oncologists. We provide analysis of 1339 clinical genomic profiles from 31 different cancers and their subtypes, comprising of central nervous system (CNS) 792 (59%) cases (incl. meningioma, glioma and glioblastoma), with 267 (20%) cases predominantly of lung, pancreatic and colorectal and 280 of others (21%). Here, we present the technical challenges of validating an NGS oncological diagnostic targeted assay for clinical grade accuracy and sensitivity for patient care. We show how copy number alterations provide a more comprehensive description of the tumors genomic profile. We then outline the utility of targeted panel sequencing based on certified pathologist selection of reportable variants for our current patient cohort. Where analysis of variant detection has led to 49.4% (661/1339) of our clinical tumor samples containing mutations in known therapy targeted genes, 35.6% (477/1339) with mutation detected in other genes, and 15% (201/1339) cases being negative.

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Pan-cancer Graph-based Cancer Detection Using the Cell-free DNA Methylome

Zhao, L.; Zeng, Y.; Abelman, D. D.; Lin, W.; Luo, P.

2026-08-31 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361432 medRxiv
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Motivation: Cell-free DNA methylation provides a minimally invasive signal for early cancer detection and tissue-of-origin prediction. Most methods represent methylation measurements as independent fixed-window features and therefore do not explicitly model relationships among genomic regions. Results: We developed PANGEM (Pan-cancer Graph-based Cancer Detection Using the Cell-free DNA Methylome), a graph-learning framework that represents genomic bins as nodes and integrates CpG context, genomic proximity, and sample-specific methylation similarity in the graph topology. Across five repeated stratified train-test splits, PANGEM achieved the highest mean performance among evaluated methods, with an AUROC/AUPR of 0.997/1.000 for binary cancer detection and macro-AUROC/AUPR of 0.977/0.870 for multiclass tissue-of-origin prediction. In the independent INSPIRE cohort, 72 of 78 cancer cases (92.3%) exceeded the binary classification threshold, and PANGEM correctly classified 9 of 17 head and neck cancer cases (52.9%), the highest accuracy among evaluated methods. Subnetwork analysis further identified recurrent, graph-connected methylation patterns, including a 111-DMR subnetwork with increased methylation in cancer samples.

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Myelonets define spatiotemporal immunosuppressive programs in ovarian cancer

Niemiec, I.; Shabanova, A.; Ruuska, E.; Tissarinen, M.; Liang, Z.; Anandagoda, G.; Shah, S.; Kang, Z.; Junquera, A.; Salko, M.; Haltia, U.-M.; Virtanen, A.; Farkkila, A.

2026-08-31 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361128 medRxiv
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High-grade serous ovarian carcinoma (HGSC) responds poorly to immune checkpoint blockade, partly due to a macrophage-dominated immunosuppressive microenvironment. We integrated single-cell spatial proteomics and spatial transcriptomics across 50 HGSC tumors and applied SPACEstat to resolve higher-order immune communities and their transcriptional programs. We identified six immune community types, with macrophage-dominated Myelonets representing the predominant spatial pattern of immune organisation. In chemotherapy-exposed tumors, Myelonets showed coordinated lipid metabolism-immunosuppression and inflammation-MHC-II macrophage transcriptional programs, with SPP1, C1Q, VEGF, MMPs, and CCL18 linked to immunosuppressive states and fibroblasts emerging as key mediators of macrophage communication. Chemotherapy contracted large Myelonets while increasing CD8+ T-cell organization into Lymphonets. Persistent macrophage dominance within Myelonets was associated with adverse outcomes among patients who achieved a complete response to treatment. Together, we identify Myelonets as clinically relevant, multicellular immunoregulatory niches sustained by spatiotemporally coordinated macrophage programs and stromal crosstalk.

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Pretrained transformers applied to population cancer registries improve survival prediction in label-scarce and previously unseen cancers

Gao, Y.; Yu, S.; Xia, Y.; Chen, S.; Xia, S.; An, R.; Zeng, J.; Zhao, F.; Ma, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, X.; Zhang, J.

2026-09-03 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361693 medRxiv
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Prognostic models in oncology are developed one cancer at a time, from that cancer's own labelled outcomes, and fail where prognostic information is scarcest. Rare cancers account for roughly a fifth of diagnoses and most paediatric malignancies, yet seldom supply enough events for a reliable time-to-event model. We therefore asked whether a representation learned without outcome labels can supply what those cohorts cannot. A Transformer encoder was pretrained by masked field-value modelling on 9425135 tumour records from the SEER 17 registries, diagnosed in 2000 to 2023. Only diagnosis-time fields passing a fail-closed coding-verification gate were admitted, and each record was emitted as an era-specific and a harmonised view, keeping two decades of recoding auditable. The encoder was then frozen and read by a linear Cox head for overall survival. Nine rare cancers were removed from the pretraining corpus entirely, each requiring an independent pretraining run. On a sealed test partition, all nine exceeded an architecture-identical random frozen encoder in Harrell concordance by +0.0034 to +0.0368, every lower confidence limit above zero. At 256 labelled patients, all 67 cancers favoured the pretrained representation over budget-matched Cox regression, median difference +0.0283. The advantage was bounded: given the entire training set, Cox regression was favoured in seven of nine rare cancers. The encoder did not outperform a field-frequency baseline on its own objective, so upstream reconstruction did not predict downstream transfer. Outcome-agnostic registry pretraining carries prognostic signal into cancers it has never seen, and is most useful where labels are fewest, without establishing clinical utility.

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LLM-assisted evidence audit of late-stage cancer incidence as a screening trial endpoint

Li, S.; Zhang, W.; Xing, X.; Shen, Z.; Wang, Y.; Chen, Z.; Neto, O.; Yu, Y.; Wu, C.; Lin, L.

2026-08-31 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361733 medRxiv
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Background Late-stage cancer incidence is being considered as an earlier endpoint in cancer-screening trials, but its trial-level association with cancer-specific mortality may depend on evidence selection and endpoint harmonization. We evaluated the robustness of this association to source-verified additions. Methods We reconstructed the PubMed corpus underlying a 41-comparison review. Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview was used only to prioritize reports for blinded human reassessment. Reviewers determined eligibility, linked reports from the same trial, harmonized endpoints, and verified comparison-level data. We recalculated unweighted Pearson correlations overall and by cancer type after adding earliest-compatible trial comparisons. Results Among 1209 candidate records, 996 PDFs were assessed. Thirty-three reports absent from the source review were prioritized; 26 were eligible, representing 18 trials, and 8 provided compatible comparisons. Adding these comparisons increased the dataset from 41 to 49 and attenuated the overall correlation from 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.55 to 0.85) to 0.59 (95% CI = 0.37 to 0.75). Updated correlations were 0.49 (95% CI = -0.26 to 0.87) for breast, -0.23 (95% CI = -0.71 to 0.40) for colorectal, and 0.83 (95% CI = 0.54 to 0.95) for lung cancer. One sparse-event comparison influenced the colorectal estimate. Conclusions The overall association was sensitive to evidence composition, and cancer-specific stability varied. Late-stage incidence should be evaluated by cancer type and with prespecified sensitivity analyses for evidence selection and endpoint definitions. Model-assisted prioritization cannot replace human eligibility review, trial reconciliation, and source verification.

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Investigating adiposity in childhood and adulthood on later life sleep health: a lifecourse Mendelian randomization study

pathak, s.; Richardson, T.; Sanderson, E.; Arora, N.; Strand, L.; Asvold, B. O.; Bhatta, L.; Brumpton, B.

2026-08-31 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361310 medRxiv
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Background: Higher Body Mass Index (BMI) is an established risk factor of sleep disturbance. It is not known if the effect is homogeneous across the lifecourse or if there is a particular time point in life that might be best to target. Methods: Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to investigated the effect of childhood adiposity (adjusting on adulthood adiposity and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA)) on insomnia, morning chronotype, sleep duration, daytime sleepiness and daytime napping. Similarly, total, and direct effect of adulthood adiposity on these outcomes was explored. We used summary statistics from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of UK Biobank for childhood and adulthood adiposity (n=453,169) and large-scale consortia of OSA (Million Veteran Program) (n=410,268), insomnia, and chronotype (23andMe) (n=1,978,022 and n=248,1000, respectively). Results: Two-sample univariable MR analysis provided no evidence of an effect of genetically predicted childhood adiposity on later life insomnia (Odds ratio (OR)= 0.94, 95% Confidence interval (CI)= 0.87, 1.03). Whereas, multivariable MR (adjusted for adulthood adiposity) analysis provide strong evidence of direct protective effect of genetically predicted childhood adiposity on later life insomnia (OR= 0.70, CI= 0.64, 0.77). Further, both in univariable and multivariable MR, a strong positive effect of increased childhood body size on morning chronotype was observed (OR= 1.16, CI= 1.01, 1.33 and OR= 1.36, CI= 1.15, 1.62, respectively) after accounting for adulthood body size. In both analysis the estimate did not change considerably after aditionally adjusting for OSA. However, childhood and adulthood adiposity found to be associated with OSA and OSA with insomnia. In both univariable and multivariable analysis, increased body size in adulthood increased the risk of having insomnia and a morning chronotype. Conclusions: The findings suggest that higher body size in childhood is not a risk factor for later life insomnia, whereas higher body size in adulthood was. Further, if healthy body size is maintained in adulthood, high childhood adiposity may decrease the risk of insomnia and increase the risk of being a morning person in later life. Keywords: childhood, adulthood, obesity, insomnia, morning chronotype, medelian randomization

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Cost-Utility Analysis of First-Line Olaparib plus Abiraterone for Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer in China after Volume-Based Procurement

SHI, J.; Gu, Q.; Pan, J.; Yang, A.; Fan, M.

2026-08-31 health economics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361314 medRxiv
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To evaluate the cost-utility and 5-year budget impact of first-line olaparib plus abiraterone versus abiraterone alone for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) in China after the eleventh round of volume-based procurement (VBP). The intention-to-treat (ITT) population was assigned primary decision-analytic weight; the prespecified BRCA1/2-mutated (BRCAm) subgroup was a supporting analysis.

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A Multi-Agent Large Language Model Reasoning Engine for Early Detection of Pediatric Growth Disorders

Rabbani, N.; Mettner, J.; Lee, K.; Soto-Rivera, C. L.; Windberger, A.; Santiago, K.; Hatoun, J.; Correa, E. T.; Vernacchio, L.; Kohane, I.

2026-08-31 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361655 medRxiv
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Routine childhood growth surveillance is a cornerstone of pediatric care. Growth pattern abnormalities are often early manifestations of chronic disease. Yet subtle abnormalities are frequently underrecognized, leading to diagnostic delays and avoidable morbidity. We introduce SPROUT (System for Pediatric Recognition Of Undiagnosed Trajectories), a generalized, multi-agent large language model (LLM) reasoning system designed to identify a broad spectrum of pediatric growth-related conditions from longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) earlier than standard clinical practice. Using a large pediatric primary care EHR dataset, we developed and validated SPROUT as a two-stage system. First, a highly specific LLM screener flags concerning longitudinal growth patterns. Second, an Orchestrator module coordinates a multidisciplinary panel of LLM agents to generate a ranked differential diagnosis. To correct systemic reasoning errors, a Trainer module injects meta-knowledge into the panel via a dedicated "Learner" agent. Diagnostic capability was evaluated using a walk-forward, visit-by-visit simulation leading up to the diagnosis date. The SPROUT screener model achieved 98% (83/85) specificity and 28% (9/32) sensitivity on a gold-standard dataset of pediatric primary care patients when evaluated one year before the index date, and 100% specificity and 47% sensitivity when evaluated using longitudinal data up to the day of diagnosis. When applied to 300 control patients (i.e., healthy or undiagnosed), the screener flagged 15. Subsequent expert panel review confirmed high suspicion for undiagnosed pathology in 33% (5/15) of these cases. In chronological walk-forward validation on disease cases, the diagnostic engine identified conditions well before standard-of-care documentation. One year prior to clinical diagnosis, the system achieved sensitivities of 81% for type 1 diabetes mellitus, 56% for pituitary disorders, and 44% for celiac disease. The SPROUT multi-agent system demonstrates the ability to detect a significant portion of latent growth-related pediatric conditions months to years before current clinical standards while minimizing false positives. These results support its potential as a decision support tool for reducing diagnostic delays in pediatric care.

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Pain state-dependent multimodal assessment in non-specific low back pain: a pseudorandomized study design with implementation insights

Chozas Barrientos, B.; Hau, M.; Sirucek, L.; Langenfeld, A.; Wehrli, M.; Wirth, B.; Zoelch, N.; Devan, J.; Dudli, S.; Schweinhardt, P.

2026-08-31 pain medicine 10.64898/2026.08.26.26359760 medRxiv
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Background: Fluctuations in pain intensity are intrinsic to non-specific chronic low back pain (nsCLBP). Nevertheless, pain fluctuations have rarely been considered when investigating pathophysiological mechanisms. Therefore, a novel study protocol was developed and implemented to systematically assess the impact of fluctuating pain states on pain-related measures. Methods: The final study cohort consisted of 45 nsCLBP patients and 47 age- and sex-matched healthy controls (HCs). Patients participated in three visits, conducted during different pain states (i.e. clinically relevant pain, low-intensity clinical pain / pain-free, clinically irrelevant pain induced using a Qutenza 8% capsaicin patch). Pain fluctuations were monitored through online assessments every four days and guided the pseudorandomized visit scheduling. HCs participated in a single visit. Each study visit comprised a multimodal battery of pain-related measures. Results: 93.33% of patients completed all three visit types in a pseudorandomized order (chi-squared=1.50, p=0.826). Visit scheduling was possible due to the high self-report adherence (median=93.48%), unrelated to self-report burden (rho=-0.097, p=0.53). Study visits were conducted during different pain states, as indicated by: i) the significantly higher low back pain intensity in the clinically relevant pain visit (mean[SD]: 3.98[0.90]), compared to the low-intensity clinical pain (1.03[0.86]) and clinically irrelevant pain (1.13[0.82]) visits (p-values<0.001), as well as by ii) the successful induction of a moderate-to-high clinically irrelevant pain across assessments. Conclusion: Despite scheduling complexity and pain state transition uncertainty, a pain state-dependent pseudorandomized study design is feasible and could improve the understanding of nsCLBP mechanisms.

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Antiseizure Medication Administration Gaps Across the ICU-to-Floor Transfer: A Matched Within-Patient Comparison

Gorenshtein, A.; Adiniaev, Y.; Srour, A.; Klang, E.; Daniel, O.

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361462 medRxiv
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Objective: Whether a scheduled antiseizure medication (ASM) continues on schedule across the ICU-to-floor transfer has not been characterized. We quantified ASM administration-gap frequency across this transfer and compared it with gap frequency during matched non-transfer intervals in the same patient and drug. Methods: In this retrospective MIMIC-IV (version 3.1) cohort study, we identified epilepsy and status-epilepticus admissions with an ICU stay followed by floor transfer and a scheduled ASM order active at ICU departure. A gap was defined as an interval exceeding 1.5 times the expected dosing interval between the last ICU dose and first floor dose, or no further dose before discharge, and compared with a matched non-transfer control interval in the same patient and drug (paired McNemar test). A multivariable model evaluated six prespecified clinical predictors; sociodemographic variables were summarized descriptively. Results: Among 2,469 ASM transition-by-drug observations (1,583 admissions, 1,335 patients), an administration gap occurred in 251 (10.2%; 95% CI, 8.7%-11.7%). Gap frequency across the transfer exceeded frequency during matched non-transfer control intervals in the same patient and drug: a paired rate difference of 5.8 percentage points (95% CI, 4.4-7.1; 7.5% vs 1.7%; P = 7.3 x 10^-22) before the transfer and 6.4 percentage points (95% CI, 4.9-7.9; 8.9% vs 2.5%; P = 1.9 x 10^-23) after. Gap rates were similar for intravenous-available (9.9%) and oral-only (11.4%) drugs (rate difference, 1.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.6 to 4.5; P = .34). None of six prespecified predictors reached significance after correction. Significance: An antiseizure medication administration gap occurred in approximately 1 of every 10 drug-transition observations at the ICU-to-floor transfer, exceeding matched non-transfer gap rates by 5.8 to 6.4 percentage points. This transfer-associated excess, rather than any single medication or patient characteristic, supports a structured medication-continuity check.

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Policy implementation gap: a qualitative evaluation of the implementation of Ghana's national cancer control strategy

Jawhara, B.; Baatiema, L.

2026-08-31 health policy 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361597 medRxiv
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Background: Cancer is a growing public health challenge in Ghana, with 27,385 new cases and 17,944 deaths recorded in 2022. Ghana developed a National Cancer Control Strategy (NCCS) in 2011 to guide prevention, early detection, treatment, and palliative care. The strategy expired in 2016 and has not been formally evaluated or renewed, leaving cancer control efforts without a guiding policy framework for nearly a decade. This study examined how the strategy was implemented, what barriers were encountered and what stakeholders recommend for a strengthened national cancer response. Methods: We conducted a qualitative descriptive study using semi-structured key informant interviews. Fifteen participants were recruited through purposive sampling, supplemented by snowball referrals, representing three groups: Ministry of Health policymakers, frontline healthcare providers and representatives of cancer-focused non-governmental organisations. Data were collected between June and September 2025 and analysed using Braun and Clarke's six-phase thematic analysis framework, guided deductively by the WHO Health Systems Building Blocks framework Results: Three themes emerged: NCCS interventions and systems implemented, capturing progress in cancer awareness, HPV vaccination and pilot screening programmes alongside persistent geographic and financial inequities in access; barriers to implementation, including inadequate financing, infrastructure and workforce shortages, the absence of a national cancer registry and governance failures, among them the finding that no frontline healthcare provider interviewed had any awareness of the NCCS; and recommended implementation strategies, including co-production of a renewed strategy, establishment of a dedicated National Cancer Control Programme, expanded health insurance coverage and decentralisation of oncology services. Conclusion: The NCCS was not operationally embedded in the health system. The evidence points to failures in policy dissemination as a constraint that precedes resource constraints. Addressing Ghana's rising cancer burden requires renewed political commitment, co-produced governance structures and accountability mechanisms. These findings have relevance for other low- and middle-income country settings facing similar challenges.

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Acceptability, feasibility, quality of life and diabetes distress score outcomes: A pragmatic randomised clinical trial on continuous glucose monitoring for people with type 1 diabetes

Marban-Castro, E.; Muhwava, L.; Girdwood, S.; Kemp, T.; Freitas, J.; Kamau, Y.; Otieno, M.; Akach, D.; Morato, A.; Sanz, S.; Fiechter, V.; Erkosar, B.; Watson, M.; Vetter, B.; Haldane, C.; Shilton, S.; Rheeder, P.; Dave, J. A.; Carrihill, M.; Karsas, M.

2026-08-31 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361479 medRxiv
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Introduction: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) offers an advancement over traditional self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) for people living with type 1 diabetes (T1D). However, evidence on the acceptability and feasibility of different CGM use cases in African populations remains limited. Methods: This was a pragmatic three-arm, randomised controlled trial on CGM conducted among people living with T1D in three public healthcare clinics in South Africa. Participants were assigned to Arm 1 (continuous CGM), Arm 2 (periodic CGM), or Arm 3 (SMBG). Diabetes education was provided at all study visits. Feasibility was assessed by adherence to CGM use and through the Glucose Monitoring Satisfaction Survey (GMSS). Diabetes distress was measured by the Diabetes Distress Scale (DDS), health-related quality of life (HRQoL) by the EQ-5D scales, and acceptability using the Theoretical Framework of Acceptability (TFA). Surveys were collected on paper and transferred to OpenClinica. Analyses were performed in R. The trial was registered in the Clinical Trials Registry (NCT05944718) on July 13, 2023. Results: A total of 83 participants were included in Arm 1, 85 in Arm 2, and 80 in Arm 3. CGM mean active time was 55% in Arm 1 versus 69% in Arm 2. The proportion of participants meeting the [&ge;]70% active time threshold was higher in Arm 2 (52%) than in Arm 1 (34%). Diabetes' distress declined across arms during the intervention period, with no significant difference between arms; distress increased slightly six months post-intervention but remained below baseline. At 6 months, glucose monitoring satisfaction was significantly higher in both CGM arms than in the SMBG arm, and satisfaction increased over time in CGM arms. Health-related quality of life remained stable across arms during the intervention period with no significant difference between arms. High acceptability was observed in both CGM arms, with higher ratings in the periodic arm. Conclusions: CGM was acceptable to people living with type 1 diabetes and feasible to use in public-sector clinics in South Africa, with high acceptability under continuous and periodic use. Health-related quality of life remained stable across arms, and diabetes-related distress declined, during the intervention period, across arms. Glucose monitoring satisfaction rose significantly in both CGM arms compared to SMBG. Periodic CGM might be a promising and potentially more scalable option than continuous use for public-sector care.

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Paradoxical relief after seizures: a diagnostic signal distinguishing functional/dissociative from epileptic seizures

Masharani, A.; Koreki, A.; Marcelo, M.; Shalfrooshan, K.; Diamos, M.-A.; Santucci, C.; Pillai, K.; Bindman, D.; O'Sullivan, S.; Rugg-Gunn, F.; Sidhu, M.; Yogarajah, M.

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26360607 medRxiv
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Objective: To determine whether paradoxical relief, feeling unusually better after a seizure compared to before it, is more common after functional/dissociative seizures (FDS) than epileptic seizures (ES), quantify its diagnostic accuracy, and explore its relationship with preictal symptoms. Methods: Consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary epilepsy unit for prolonged inpatient EEG monitoring underwent a structured clinical interview on admission, before final multidisciplinary diagnostic classification. Preictal dissociative and autonomic/somatic symptom burden was assessed using items adapted from established questionnaires. Diagnostic classification incorporated clinical history, seizure semiology, video electroencephalography findings, and collateral information. Patients with dual or indeterminate diagnoses were excluded. Associations with paradoxical relief were examined using logistic regression, followed by an exploratory mediation analysis. Results: Of 176 patients assessed, 66 with FDS and 65 with ES were included. Paradoxical relief was reported by 46/66 patients with FDS (69.7%) and 10/65 with ES (15.4%; unadjusted odds ratio [OR] 12.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.57 to 31.09). As a diagnostic signal for FDS, paradoxical relief had 69.7% sensitivity (95% CI 57.1 to 80.4), 84.6% specificity (95% CI 73.5 to 92.4), a positive likelihood ratio of 4.53 (2.51 to 8.19), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.36 (0.24 to 0.52). FDS diagnosis remained independently associated with paradoxical relief after adjustment (OR 10.59, 95% CI 3.42 to 38.06). In a parallel mediation analysis, dissociative symptom burden showed a significant indirect effect, accounting for 19.5% of the association between diagnostic group and relief, whereas the indirect effect through somatic/autonomic symptom burden was not significant. Significance: Paradoxical relief is substantially more common after FDS than ES and may provide a simple, clinically useful diagnostic signal. Its absence does not exclude FDS, and the finding requires external validation. The association with dissociative symptoms is exploratory and supports prospective investigation of whether relief reflects transient resolution of a disturbed, disembodied preictal state.

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Urinary collagen type I degradation products as common fibrosis biomarkers in chronic diseases

Mina, I. K.; Hussain, Y.; Siwy, J.; Catanese, L.; Rupprecht, H.; Beige, J.; Staessen, J. A.; Metzger, J.; Persson, F.; Rossing, P.; Delles, C.; Schanstra, J. P.; Bannaga, A.; Vlahou, A.; Mischak, H.; Arasaradnam, R. P.; Latosinska, A.

2026-08-31 nephrology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361420 medRxiv
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Background: Fibrosis, characterised by excessive accumulation of collagen type I (COL1), is a common feature of chronic diseases, including liver diseases (LDs), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure (HF). COL1 degradation products can be detected in urine by proteomics/ peptidomics analyses and may serve as non-invasive biomarkers of fibrosis. We aimed to identify a common molecular signature of fibrosis across these diseases that may ultimately guide interventions to slow disease progression and prevent organ damage. Methods: Using capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry (CE-MS), naturally occurring COL1 degradation products (peptides) in the urine of patients with fibrotic disease, LDs (n=127), CKD (n=263) or HF (n=187), were investigated and compared with the same number of matched controls. Disease-associated COL1 peptides were identified separately for each condition, and peptides showing consistent associations across the three diseases were selected to define a common fibrosis signature. A support vector machine model based on the selected peptides was developed and validated in independent cohorts of patients with LDs (n=110), CKD (n=93), HF (n=32) and controls (n=643). Results: We identified a common fibrotic signature consisting of 50 COL1 degradation products, mainly downregulated in fibrosis. A model based on these peptides achieved a strong performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.935 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.917-0.953, p<0.0001) in an external validation cohort comprising pooled disease groups (LDs, CKD, and HF) and controls. Performance was maintained in LDs, CKD and HF, with AUCs of 0.917 (95% CI 0.890-0.944, p<0.0001), 0.951 (95% CI 0.931-0.971, p<0.0001) and 0.950 (95% CI 0.903-0.997, p<0.0001), respectively. The model scores were significantly associated with fibrosis stage in LDs (p=0.0097) and with interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy in CKD (p=0.045). Conclusion: A model of urinary COL1 peptides captures a shared collagen degradation signature across organs and diseases, enabling the non-invasive assessment of fibrosis irrespective of its origin. As these peptides exclusively reflect collagen degradation, the findings suggest impaired collagen degradation as a driver in fibrosis. Future clinical studies are warranted to evaluate the utility of this model for early fibrosis detection and earlier implementation of anti-fibrotic interventions.