Breast Cancer Research

Purpose: To test whether histology-derived gene-expression signatures from routine hematoxylin and eosin slides are prognostic for recurrence and predictive of chemotherapy benefit in early breast cancer. Methods: We conducted a multi-cohort study including CALGB 9344 (anthracycline +/- paclitaxel), CALGB 9741 (standard vs dose-dense chemotherapy), a pooled Chicago real-world cohort, and the American Cancer Society (ACS) Cancer Prevention Studies-II and -3. Whole-slide images were processed with a previously described pipeline to generate 61 histology-derived signatures per patient. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI), except in ACS, where breast cancer-specific survival was used. Secondary endpoints include distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) and overall survival. The most prognostic signature in CALGB 9344, selected by Harrell's C-index, was evaluated in additional cohorts. Signature-treatment interaction was assessed by likelihood-ratio tests. Multivariable Cox models incorporating age, tumor size, nodal status, estrogen/progesterone receptor status, and signature were fit in CALGB 9344 to improve risk stratification. Results: A total of 7,170 patients were included across four cohorts. The top histology-derived signature in CALGB 9344 showed strong prognostic performance for 5-year DRFI (C-index 0.63) and performed well across validation cohorts (C-index 0.60, 0.70, and 0.62 in CALGB 9741, Chicago, and ACS, respectively). The strongest predictive signal for treatment benefit was observed for DRFS. High-risk cases identified by the signature demonstrated greater benefit from taxane in CALGB 9344 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.76 for DRFS, 95% CI 0.66-0.88; interaction p=0.028), from dose-dense chemotherapy in CALGB 9741 (aHR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.85; interaction p=0.039), and differential chemotherapy benefit in the Chicago cohort (aHR 0.84, 95% CI 0.59-1.21; interaction p=0.009). Combined clinical-histology models improved risk stratification and identified low-risk groups with a 2%-10% risk of distant recurrence or breast cancer death. Conclusion: Histology-derived signatures from H&E images are broadly prognostic and, unlike clinical factors, may predict chemotherapy benefit.

Early detection of breast cancer remains essential for improving clinical outcomes, and complementary non-invasive approaches are needed to support existing screening methods, particularly for women with dense breast tissue. We have previously reported plasma lipid biomarker discovery using untargeted high-resolution liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). In this study, we performed biomarker confirmation and developed machine-learning models applied to targeted plasma lipid measurements for the non-invasive detection of early-stage breast cancer across international cohorts with independent external validation. Targeted LC-MS/MS was used to quantify candidate lipid panels in plasma samples from European discovery cohorts (n = 554) and an independent Australian cohort (n = 266) used for external validation. Data-driven feature selection identified a 15-lipid panel with strong performance in European cohorts (AUC >= 0.94). External validation prior to confidence stratification yielded 76% sensitivity, 64% specificity, and an AUC of 0.81 in the Australian validation cohort. Clinical assay development requires iterative panel and model testing to support translational feasibility and performance in the intended-use population. An analytically viable panel, excluding lipids requiring complex and costly synthesis, achieved comparable accuracy with improved assay robustness. Confidence-based analysis showed enhanced performance for predictions made with moderate to high confidence, with sensitivity up to 89% and AUC up to 0.85, suggesting that ongoing research should focus on strategies to enhance diagnostic model confidence. Importantly, model predictions were independent of breast density, tumour size, grade, subtype, and morphology, indicating biological specificity of the lipid signature. These results demonstrate that calibrated machine-learning models applied to plasma lipid biomarkers can support non-invasive breast cancer detection. Expanding training datasets to include greater diversity will further improve performance in the ongoing development of this lipid-based detection approach.

Metabolic dysfunction is increasingly recognized as a risk factor for poor outcomes in breast cancer, but whether incretin-based therapies confer survival benefit beyond weight loss remains unresolved. Using a federated electronic health record platform spanning nearly 29 million patients, we evaluated breast cancer survival after semaglutide and tirzepatide initiation in routine care. In 1:1 propensity-matched pooled-comparator analyses, semaglutide was associated with improved overall survival versus metformin, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitor users, with 54 deaths among 2,433 semaglutide users (2.2%) versus 395 deaths among 2,433 comparators (16.2%) over 24 months (log-rank P < 0.001). Tirzepatide showed a favorable survival association relative to pooled anti-diabetic comparators that did not meet statistical significance (P = 0.24), with 3 deaths among 220 users (1.4%) versus 64 deaths among 220 comparators (29.1%). In a head-to-head propensity-score-matched comparison, overall survival did not differ significantly between semaglutide and tirzepatide treated patients with pre-existing breast cancer (2,117 per arm; P = 0.12). In semaglutide-treated patients alive and observable at the 1-year landmark, higher maximum dose achieved was significantly associated with lower post-landmark mortality (P = 0.034), with an event rate of approximately 1.0% in the high-dose group (>=1.7 mg) versus approximately 4.5% in the low-dose group (0.25-1.0 mg). Despite a linear dose weight loss relationship for semaglutide, however, weight loss strata did not separate survival outcomes (global P = 0.22). In tirzepatide-treated patients alive and observable at the same landmark, neither maximum dose achieved nor weight loss strata separated post-landmark survival (P = 0.98 and P = 0.50, respectively). Structured EHR and AI-based clinical note analyses further showed significantly lower frequency of documented metastatic disease in semaglutide-treated patients relative to pooled anti-diabetic comparators, including any metastasis (7.0% versus 15.0%, rate ratio 0.5, P < 0.001), bone metastasis (1.0% versus 5.2%, rate ratio 0.2, P < 0.001), and liver, lung, or brain metastases (all P < 0.001). LLM-derived cause-of-death extraction further showed a 60% lower relative proportion of cancer-associated deaths in semaglutide-treated patients (19% of ascertainable deaths) than in matched pooled anti-diabetic comparators (47% of ascertainable deaths), with comparator deaths more often attributed to cancer progression involving metastatic breast cancer, leptomeningeal carcinomatosis, and cancer-driven organ failure. Overall, this study demonstrates that semaglutide use in patients with pre-existing breast cancer is associated with a dose correlated but weight loss independent improvement in overall survival. These findings motivate prospective trials of GLP-1 receptor agonists in breast cancer across various stages and treatment settings.

Background. Breast cancer (BC) remains the most diagnosed malignancy and leading cancer-related cause of mortality in women worldwide. Although blood-based untargeted metabolomics has emerged as a promising modality for detecting early-stage BC, the clinical translation of this approach has been bottlenecked by two unresolved issues: (i) the field has almost exclusively relied on serum or plasma, which require venipuncture and cold-chain logistics, and (ii) machine-learning models reported on such data are frequently validated with protocols that are blind to analytical batch structure, producing optimistically biased performance estimates. Methods. We present a breast cancer detection study based on dried blood spots (DBS), an analytical matrix that enables self-collection and ambient-temperature shipping. A cohort of 2,734 participants (114 biopsy-confirmed BC cases; 2,620 non-cancer controls) was profiled by untargeted LC-MS/MS on a Thermo Scientific Orbitrap IQ-X coupled to a Vanquish UHPLC. A 39-metabolite panel meeting MSI Level 1 identification criteria was pre-specified a priori from the published breast-cancer metabolomics literature, frozen prior to LC-MS acquisition, and applied to the present cohort without any feature selection on the data. Six standard supervised-learning architectures (LASSO, Elastic Net, Linear SVM, PLS-DA, OPLS-DA, XGBoost) were evaluated on this pre-specified panel; OPLS-DA is reported only in the sex-matched subgroup analysis where a single-seed 5-fold stratified protocol permits a directly comparable fit. Per-batch control-median normalization is applied upstream; kNN imputation, log transform, and robust scaling are fit within each training fold. The evaluation battery comprises batch-aware StratifiedGroupKFold CV at single-seed (seed=42) with inter-seed SD quantified across 10 independent seeds, batch-aware nested CV, a 100-seed held-out 20%-batch validation with disjoint-batch isotonic probability calibration (30% calibration partition), PPV/NPV reporting at multiple operating points and three deployment prevalences, subgroup analyses by TNM stage and tumor grade, pathway-ablation sensitivity analysis, and a 1,000-iteration permutation test. Results. Under batch-aware evaluation (StratifiedGroupKFold, single-seed=42), AUC ranged from 0.914 to 0.949 across classifiers, with LASSO achieving 0.928 and XGBoost 0.949; inter-seed SD across 10 seeds was 0.002-0.006. At 95% specificity, LASSO reached 75.4% sensitivity and XGBoost 81.6%. Held-out batch validation (100 seeds) yielded mean AUC 0.912 for Elastic Net and 0.935 for XGBoost, confirming robust generalization. All 39 panel features showed high coefficient stability, and permutation testing on representative classifiers (LASSO, Linear SVM, PLS-DA) yielded p <= 0.001. Subgroup analyses showed weaker detection of stage IIA tumors (AUC 0.87, n=40) compared with stage IIB/IIIA (AUC 0.95), consistent with stronger metabolic signatures in more advanced disease. Bootstrap coefficient consistency of the Elastic Net classifier confirmed that all 39 panel features received a non-zero multivariate weight in >=80% of 100 stratified bootstraps. Conclusions. On this cohort of diagnosed, pre-treatment breast-cancer cases, DBS LC-MS metabolomic profiling delivers classification performance (AUC 0.928 for LASSO and 0.949 for XGBoost under batch-aware GroupKFold CV at single-seed=42; held-out AUC 0.912-0.935) that is robust across classifier families and biological pathways. The DBS matrix is non-radiating, self-collectable by finger-prick, and mailable at ambient temperature. Performance is weaker on stage IIA than on more advanced disease, and prospective validation in an independent asymptomatic screening cohort is required before clinical positioning as a decentralized triage modality.

Summary statistics fine-mapping methods offer advantages over classical methods, including avoiding data-sharing constraints and improved modelling of correlated variables and sparse effects. However, its performance has not been comprehensively evaluated in breast cancer using real-world data. Previous multinomial stepwise regression (MNR) fine-mapping analyses for breast cancer identified 196 credible sets. Here, we apply summary statistics fine-mapping, compare methods, and assess parameters influencing performance. Using summary statistics from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, we compared finiMOM, SuSiE, and FINEMAP to published MNR results across 129 regions. Performance was assessed by recall using in-sample and out-of-sample LD. Discordant credible sets were examined for technical factors, and target genes were defined using the INQUISIT pipeline. SuSiE showed the closest agreement with MNR. Results varied across regions depending on the assumed number of causal variants (L), with higher values reducing recall and no single L maximising performance. At optimal L per region, SuSiE identified 8,192 CCVs in 244 credible sets, with recall of 88%, 86%, and 72% for overall, ER-positive, and ER-negative breast cancer. Thirty MNR sets were missed. Discordance was partially explained by allele flips, imputation quality, and array heterogeneity. Fifty-two MNR-identified genes, including BRCA2, WNT7B and CREBBP were not recovered, while additional candidate genes were identified. Using out-of-sample LD reduced recall by 3% but identified novel variants. Fine-mapping results vary across methods, and no single approach is sufficient. The choice of L strongly influences results, and combining analytical approaches with functional validation can improve causal variant identification.

Background: Few studies have examined racioethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women after breast cancer treatment, who are at higher risk due to cardiotoxic cancer treatment. Methods: Based on the Pathways Heart Study of women with a history of breast cancer, this analysis examines the association between cardiometabolic risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia) and CVD events with self-reported race and ethnicity, as well as genetic similarity. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to test race and ethnicity and genetic similarity with prevalent and incident cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD events. Results: Of the 4,071 patients in this analysis, non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Asian, and Hispanic women were more likely to have prevalent and incident diabetes than non-Hispanic White (NHW) women. Analysis of genetic similarity revealed results consistent with self-reported race and ethnicity. For CVD risk, NHB women were more likely to develop heart failure and cardiomyopathy than NHW women. In contrast, Hispanic women were at lower risk of any incident CVD, serious CVD, arrhythmia, heart failure or cardiomyopathy, and ischemic heart disease, which was consistent with the associations found with Native American ancestry. Conclusions: This is the largest multi-ethnic study of disparities in CVD health in breast cancer survivors, demonstrating corroborating findings between self-reported race and ethnicity and genetic similarity. The results highlight disparities in cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD among breast cancer survivors that warrant more research and clinical attention in these distinct, high-risk populations.

Accurate histopathological differentiation between High-Grade Serous Carcinoma (HGSC) and Low-Grade Serous Carcinoma (LGSC) remains a critical yet challenging aspect of ovarian cancer diagnosis due to their similar morphology and different clinical outcomes. This study presents a deep learning framework that uses custom attention mechanisms, including the Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM), Squeeze-and-Excitation (SE) blocks, and a Differential Attention module within five CNN architectures for automated binary classification of ovarian cancer subtypes from H&E WSI patches. Although individual models achieved higher accuracy, the ensemble stacking framework with a shallow MLP meta-learner delivered the best overall performance, with a ROC-AUC of 0.9211, an accuracy of 0.85, and F1-scores of 0.84 and 0.85 across both subtypes. These findings demonstrate that attention-guided feature recalibration combined with ensemble stacking provides robust and clinically interpretable discrimination of ovarian carcinoma subtypes.

Emerging multi-omic profiling has made it feasible to subtype disease using multiple molecular layers. However, inconsistent preprocessing, heterogeneous implementations, variable evaluation, and limited reproducibility often constrain method selection. Here, we systematically benchmark 22 publicly available unsupervised approaches for bulk data on the TCGA-BRCA cohort across five modalities (RNA-seq, miRNA, DNA methylation, copy numbers, single nucleotide polymorphisms) and validate findings in two independent datasets, enabling a multi-layered comparison of performance, heterogeneous data support and interpretability. Most approaches fuse multi-omic data to produce a two-cluster solution largely aligned with ER status, with higher-resolution approaches further refining these into four coherent subclasses (angiogenic luminal, oxidative-phosphorylation/HER2-low luminal, immune-inflamed basal-like, and hyper-proliferative basal-like). Our benchmarking results indicate that methods based on similarity networks can efficiently produce stable, reliable partitions. Matrix factorisation and Bayesian factorisation algorithms produce rich latent representations, allowing quantification of feature and modality contributions, albeit at higher computational cost. Consensus clustering can be used on a case-by-case basis and refine partitions into more robust and generalisable findings. We aggregate our insights into a decision workflow that aligns with study goals, data characteristics, and computational resources, enabling optimal analytic strategies. This comprehensive assessment provides a practical roadmap for investigators seeking to extract reproducible, biologically meaningful subtypes from complex multi-omic datasets. We higlight the different technical and practical benefits and trade-offs that shape the selection and development of multi-omic approaches applied in precision oncology.

BackgroundThe retired antigen hypothesis, introduced by Tuohy and colleagues, proposes that tissue-specific proteins expressed conditionally during early life or reproductive stages, then silenced in normal aging tissue, represent safe and effective cancer vaccine targets when re-expressed in tumors. To date, discovery of retired antigens has relied entirely on hypothesis-driven wet lab work, limiting throughput. MethodsHere we present RADAR (Retired Antigen Discovery and Ranking), a multi-omics computational pipeline implemented on a standard server that systematically identifies retired antigen candidates. RADAR comprises four core discovery layers integrating: 1) The Genotype-Tissue Expression Portal (GTEx) normal tissue expression, 2) TCGA tumor re-expression, 3) DNA methylation, and 4) miRNA regulatory networks, each applied sequentially to identify genes exhibiting the epigenetic and post-transcriptional hallmarks of tissue-specific retirement followed by tumor re-activation. Candidate characterization is further supported by three automated modules: 1) protein-level safety screening via the Human Protein Atlas, 2) molecular subtype enrichment analysis, and 3) cross-cancer confirmation, which execute automatically when the relevant data are available for the selected cancer type. ResultsThe pipeline independently validated known targets including alpha-lactalbumin (LALBA, the basis of the Tuohy Phase 1 triple-negative breast cancer vaccine trial) and anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH), consistent with Tuohys ovarian cancer vaccine program targeting AMHR2, and rediscovered multiple known cancer-testis antigens (MAGEA1, MAGEC1, SSX1) as positive controls. Among 4,664 initial candidates derived from GTEx, the pipeline identified 20 high-confidence retired antigen candidates passing all filters. DCAF4L2, COX7B2, TEX19, and CT83 emerge as the highest-priority novel candidates for experimental validation, demonstrating zero expression in critical somatic organs, strong epigenetic silencing, and significant re-expression across multiple cancer types. ConclusionRADAR provides the first systematic computational framework for retired antigen discovery, offering a reproducible and scalable approach to expanding the cancer immunoprevention pipeline beyond individually characterized targets. The pipeline is fully reproducible, requires no specialized hardware, and is immediately extensible to additional TCGA cancer types.

The immunohistochemistry (IHC) methods widely used in diagnostic medicine and biomedical research are kinetically complex reaction-diffusion processes that, ideally, produce stain intensities correlated with the local antigen concentration. Yet after 75 years of use, practical theoretical tools to rigorously plan and interpret IHC experiments are still lacking. Because modeling the reactions requires time-consuming computer simulation, impractical for regular use, most protocols are optimized empirically, without detailed knowledge of the reaction rates and antigen-antibody equilibria. The resulting stain intensities can be calibrated against standards with known antigen abundance, but they are typically not interpretable in terms of chemical antigen concentrations. To address these limitations, we developed a fast interpolation method to model reaction-diffusion behavior, and experimental methods to characterize IHC kinetic parameters in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples. Used together, these allow experimental measurement of both the chemical concentration of antigen in the sample and the reaction-diffusion parameters consistent with the assay results. Results show 1) direct immunofluorescent detection has low nanomolar sensitivity with >1000-fold dynamic range, and 2) antibody diffusion rates in FFPE samples can be >1000-fold slower than in aqueous solutions, producing diffusion-limited conditions in which the IHC reaction time course may depend on the sample antigen concentration. Awareness of these details is necessary to avoid potential underestimation of both the absolute and relative antigen concentrations in different samples that may occur if staining is stopped before reaching equilibrium. Software tools are provided to allow users to rapidly model IHC reaction time courses and to fit experimental time course data with candidate reaction parameters. The principles described here apply equally to other tissue-based "spatial omics" analyses and should be considered when designing and interpreting experiments requiring any macromolecule to diffuse into and react in a tissue section. SIGNIFICANCEThe theoretical and experimental framework described here advances IHC staining from a qualitative or semi-quantitative method towards a more rigorously quantitative assay. The practical ability to predict IHC reaction kinetics and fit reaction parameters to experimental data has the potential to advance IHC applications in diagnostic medicine and biomedical research in three ways: 1) interpretation of experimental and diagnostic samples stained under different conditions can be more objective, facilitating comparison of results from different protocols and different laboratories; 2) IHC staining can be interpreted as molar chemical antigen-antibody concentrations calculated from the reaction parameters measured in the studied sample; 3) the correlation between antigen concentration and biological behavior can be examined more reliably. Practical software tools are provided.

High-grade serous ovarian carcinoma (HGSC) is an aggressive malignancy for which bulk transcriptomic subtypes are used to stratify tumors, interpret biology, and guide biomarker development. The four TCGA-derived subtypes, mesenchymal (C1.MES), immunoreactive (C2.IMM), proliferative (C5.PRO), and differentiated (C4.DIF), are consistently observed across cohorts. However, despite their prominence, these subtypes have not translated into therapeutic utility, and their biological basis remains unresolved. Here, we show that HGSC transcriptomic subtypes are largely determined by tumor cellular composition rather than intrinsic malignant transcriptional programs. By integrating controlled single-cell-derived pseudobulk simulations with deconvolution-based analysis of 1,834 primary HGSC tumors across RNA-seq and microarray cohorts, we demonstrate that subtype probabilities align along a composition-driven axis of stromal and immune variation. Cellular composition alone predicted subtype labels with high accuracy (ROC-AUC = 0.81-0.95) and explained a substantial fraction of subtype-associated transcriptomic variation, with the mesenchymal (C1.MES) subtype representing the most robust and reproducible example of composition-driven signal. Although a secondary, composition-independent expression signal is detectable, it does not define the dominant structure of subtype classification. These findings redefine HGSC transcriptomic subtypes as features of the tumor ecosystem rather than discrete malignant states. This reinterpretation has immediate implications for studies that use subtype labels to infer tumor-intrinsic biology and provides a generalizable framework for separating composition-driven and intrinsic signals in bulk tumor data. Significance StatementHGSC transcriptomic subtypes lack consistent clinical utility and remain biologically ambiguous. We show subtype assignments are largely driven by tumor cellular composition, and less so by distinct intrinsic tumor states.

Breast cancer is globally the most common cancer among women. Although the five-year survival rate exceeds 80% for patients with localized disease, it drops to approximately 30% once metastasis occurs, underscoring the urgent need to define mechanisms that drive metastatic progression. Breast is a highly innervated organ and most of its innervation is sensory. However, whether sensory neurons can directly impact breast cancer cells remains an understudied topic. Here, we show that mammary tumors have increased CGRP sensory innervation. Using our novel microfluidic Device for Cancer cell-Axon Interaction Testing (DACIT), we demonstrate that the presence of axons strongly inhibits ECM-degrading ability of cancer cells. The sensory neuron secretome suppresses assembly and function of invadopodia, which are cancer cell protrusions controlling ECM degradation, and essential for intravasation and metastasis. We identify calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) as the key component of the sensory neuron secretome responsible for the inhibitory effect. CGRP signaling occurs through the CRLR/RAMP1 receptor complex expressed by breast cancer cells, inducing a rapid increase in intracellular cAMP levels in breast cancer cells, followed by an increase in RhoC activity and suppression of invadopodia and ECM degradation. Loss of RAMP1 function enhances 3D spheroid invasion, cancer cell motility in vivo and significantly increases the number and the size of lung metastatic foci. Consistently, in silico analyses of both mouse and human RNASeq data point to a link between increasingly invasive subtypes with a gradual decrease in expression of RAMP1 and CRLR. To validate in silico findings, we compare RAMP1 expression in the patient breast tumors with adjacent normal tissues, confirming the invasive breast tumors have reduced levels of RAMP1. Together, our findings identify a protective role for the paracrine CGRP signaling in limiting breast cancer invasion and metastasis. We also demonstrate how cancer cells circumvent CGRP inhibition by suppressing RAMP1 expression, highlighting CGRP-RAMP1-cAMP axis as a potential therapeutic target in breast cancer.

Introduction: The translation of biomarkers into binary clinical decisions requires the determination of precise cut-off points. This study validates the TholdStormDX v0.0.1 tool, a mathematical engine that employs Dual Annealing, 2- and 4-parameter logistic fitting, and vectorized Monte Carlo simulations for panel optimization under Boolean OR logic. Methods: The tool was evaluated using datasets from four diagnostic domains (Pulmonary Nodules, Hepatocellular Carcinoma [HCC], Cervical Cancer, and Breast Cancer), along with a prognosis-oriented analytical context (Breast Cancer). Validation followed a strict workflow: characterization and selection of the best individual and combined thresholds in the Training (Train) and Validation (Val) sets, using the Test set in a completely independent manner, solely to assess the model s performance and generalizability. Results: The tool enabled precise derivation of cut-off points for both individual biomarkers and multivariable combinations. Evaluation on the Test set objectively demonstrated in which scenarios a single biomarker outperforms a complex panel, promoting clinical parsimony. For example, in Breast Cancer diagnosis, an individual predictor outperformed the optimized panel (Sensitivity: 0.953 / Specificity: 0.952 in Test); conversely, in Hepatocellular Carcinoma, the multivariable combination showed superior performance compared to the single marker (Sens: 0.707 / Spe: 0.718 in Test). Additionally, the self-auditing system effectively flagged metric degradation when noisy variables were included, preventing potential issues. Conclusion: TholdStormDX v0.0.1 proves to be a robust and transparent bioinformatics platform for deriving clinical thresholds. Its main contribution lies in mitigating local minima and promoting clinical parsimony, enabling researchers to objectively identify when a single biomarker is sufficient and when a panel provides real added value. Furthermore, it transforms the problem of biological noise into a safety feature: by systematically warning about algorithmic instability, it prevents overfitting and ensures the clinical viability of medical decisions. Availability: The software is free and distributed under the GNU GPLv3 license. TholdStormDX v0.0.1 is written in Python, and its source code is available at the following GitHub address: https://github.com/roberto117343/TholdStormDX.

Mechanistic modeling has long been used as a tool to describe the dynamics of biological systems, especially cancer in response to treatment. Their key advantage lies in interpretability of relationships between input parameters and outcomes of interest. In contrast, machine learning techniques offer strong prediction performance, especially for high dimensional datasets that are common in oncology. Here, we employ a Mechanstic Learning framework that combines the advantages of both approaches by training machine learning models on mechanistic parameters inferred from clinical patient data. The mechanistic model (a Markov chain model) contains sixteen parameters that describe the rate of cell fate transitions that occur in patients with B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The machine learning (a ridge logistic regression model) is trained on these parameters to predict two clinically-relevant features: BCR::ABL1 fusion gene status (positive or negative) and minimal residual disease status (positive or negative) post-induction chemotherapy. Model training is done in an iterative fashion to assess which (and how many) parameters are critical to maintain high predictive performance. Using machine learning models trained on the clinical flow-cytometry data, we find that the stem-like cell state alone is the most predictive feature for both BCR::ABL1-positive and MRD-positive disease, with combination scores (defined as the average of accuracy, balanced accuracy, and area under the curve) of 0.80 and 0.67, respectively. By comparison, mechanistic learning achieves comparable or improved combination scores for BCR::ABL1-positive and MRD-positive disease, with scores of 0.81 and 0.71, respectively, using only de-differentiation for BCR::ABL1 and primitive-state persistence together with differentiation-directed exit for MRD. Thus, the mechanistic-learning approach not only preserves predictive performance, but also provides a biological hypothesis for why stemness is predictive of these clinically relevant outcomes.

Objective: To demonstrate the proof of principle that machine learning (ML) can be used to quantify Gleason Pattern (GP) 4 on digitized biopsy slides using multiple measurement approaches, allowing direct comparison of their prognostic performance. Methods: We assembled a convenience sample of 726 patients with grade group 2-4 prostate cancer on systematic biopsy who underwent radical prostatectomy between 2014 and 2023. Digitized biopsy slides were analyzed using a machine-learning algorithm (PAIGE-AI) to quantify GP4 using multiple measurement approaches, particularly with respect to how gaps between cancer foci (interfocal stroma) were handled. GP4 extent was quantified using linear measurements or a pixel-based area metric. Discrimination of each GP4 quantification approach, along with Grade Group (GG), was assessed for adverse radical prostatectomy pathology and biochemical recurrence. Results: We identified 15 different quantification approaches and observed differences between their discrimination. The highest discrimination was in the pixel-counting method (AUC 0.648). GP4 quantification outperformed GG for predicting adverse pathology (AUC 0.627 vs 0.608). Amount of GP3 was non-predictive once GP4 was known. These findings were consistent for BCR. Conclusions: We were able to measure slides using 15 distinct measurement approaches and replicated prior findings using ML to quantify GP4. Our findings support the use of ML as a research tool to compare different GP4 quantification approaches. We intend to use our method on larger cohorts to determine with which measurement approach best predicts oncologic outcome.

CDK4/6 inhibitors are standard-of-care for metastatic estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer, yet the development of resistance remains a significant clinical hurdle. While CDK4/6 inhibitors are primarily recognized for their ability to induce cytostasis, their role in modulating innate immune responses remains poorly defined. Here, we demonstrated that CDK4/6i treatment remodels the tumor cell surface to favor recognition and elimination by Natural Killer (NK) cells. Using a diverse biobank of patient-derived organoids (PDOs), we found that CDK4/6 inhibition robustly upregulated the adhesion molecule ICAM-1 and the NKG2D stress ligands (ULBP2/5/6 and MICA/B). This NK-engaging cell surface phenotype was driven by a bifurcated signaling network: NF-{kappa}B signaling orchestrated ICAM-1 induction, while the PI3K/mTOR pathway regulated the expression of stress ligands. Functional assays confirmed that these ligands were indispensable for NK cell-mediated elimination of breast cancer cells. In vivo studies using ER+ PDX models revealed that a brief seven-day primer treatment with the CDK4/6 inhibitor abemaciclib was sufficient to sensitize tumors to NK cell therapy, significantly inhibiting tumor growth and prolonging survival. We also observed efficacy with a concurrent dosing strategy that delayed the onset of acquired resistance. These findings provide a mechanistic rationale for combining CDK4/6 inhibitors with NK cell therapy. This "prime and kill" approach offers a promising strategy to overcome therapeutic resistance and improve outcomes for patients with metastatic ER+ breast cancer.

Patient-derived organoids from breast cancer brain metastases enable real-time drug sensitivity testing integrated with genomic profiling. Drug response varied by subtype and molecular alterations. PI3K inhibitors showed activity regardless of PIK3CA mutation status. Pronounced tumor heterogeneity highlighted the urgent need for effective therapies personalized for each patient. Functional assays and molecular matching can help tailor therapy for patients who need the most effective next treatment quickly and warrant further translational evaluation to address this unmet need.

High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer (HGSOC) is the most lethal gynecological malignancy due to aggressive growth, widespread metastases, and high intra-tumoral heterogeneity. Poor prognosis is largely due to late diagnosis, hence there is an urgent need to identify novel biomarkers for screening, diagnosis, and monitoring. Here, we propose the voltage-dependent calcium channel hCaV1.2 encoded by CACNA1C as a potential biomarker and therapeutic target in HGSOC. Using IHC analysis for ten ovarian cancer patients, cytotoxicity assay, TCGA gene expression and survival analyses, homology modeling, molecular docking, Calcium channel membrane assembly and molecular dynamics simulations, we tested CACNA1Cs role in HGSOC progression and the effect of blocking on cancer cell survival. We show that nifedipine (NIFE), a calcium channel blocker (CCB), had a tumor suppressive effect based on binding models predicted by three-dimensional computer assisted molecular modeling and in vitro validation using human HGSOC cell line. Using The Cancer Genome Atlas ovarian public cohort, we found CACNA1C mRNA expression strongly correlated with poor patient survival for late-stage and metastasis than primary. We also show strong correlation of CACNA1C protein expression using immunohistochemistry correlating with COH ovarian carcinomas patients disease progression. This research demonstrates that targeting HGSOC via CCBs may be therapeutically beneficial. By establishing further in vitro, in vivo, and clinical trials using FDA approved NIFE may be repurposed to target CACNA1C for HGSOC. Novelty and ImpactHigh-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) remains lethal due to late diagnosis and drug resistance. This study identifies CACNA1C (Cav1.2) as a novel prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target in HGSOC, showing that elevated expression correlates with metastatic/recurrent disease and poor survival. Using molecular dynamics and in vitro models, we demonstrate that the FDA-approved calcium channel blocker nifedipine binds stably to Cav1.2 and suppresses tumor cell growth more effectively than cisplatin. These findings support repurposing nifedipine for biomarker-driven HGSOC therapy. Translational RelevanceLate diagnosis and progressive relapses significantly contribute to the poor prognosis of ovarian cancer. Identification of a tumor biomarker that can be used for screening, diagnosis, and monitoring is critical for improving clinical outcome. Our findings demonstrate that CACNA1C is a viable diagnostic marker for HGSOC and that its blockade with CCBs reduces tumor progression, highlighting their therapeutic potential.

BackgroundAgeing is a complex, multi-dimensional process, underpinned by interacting biological hallmarks that collectively contribute to functional decline and increased susceptibility to disease. While considerable progress has been made in delineating individual ageing pathways, translation into human studies has been hindered by methodological heterogeneity and a lack of standardised, multi-system approaches. Here, we describe a validated, high-resolution toolkit for the simultaneous quantification of multiple ageing hallmarks in clinically accessible human samples, encompassing cellular senescence, immune ageing, inflammation, mitochondrial function, mTOR signalling, autophagy, genomic instability, and stem cell exhaustion. MethodsBlood (25ml) was obtained from young and aged donors (26-81y). Deep immunophenotyping was performed using a novel 30-colour spectral flow cytometry panel. T-cell mTOR activation and autophagic flux were assessed by flow cytometry. Metabolic flux was measured by Seahorse. From whole blood (4 ml), muscle, and adipose tissue (AT) (obtained during elective hip arthroplasty) RNA, DNA, AT stem cells, and myoblasts were isolated. DNA copy number and senescent cell burden were assessed by q-PCR and SA-{beta}-gal staining, respectively. FindingsUtilising this toolkit, we identified pronounced age-related immune remodelling, increased senescent T-cell burden, diminished mitochondrial capacity and altered mTOR-autophagy signalling between healthy young and aged donors. Furthermore, metabolism was significantly affected by anti-coagulant and freezing sample before analysis. InterpretationThis integrated platform provides a foundation for reproducible, cross-study analyses and facilitates translational investigation of interventions targeting health-span extension. FundingWellcome Leap Dynamic Resilience program (co-funded by Temasek Trust).

Persistent detection of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is required for cervical carcinogenesis, yet the metabolic phenotype associated with distinct HPV transition states remains incompletely defined. We analyzed vaginal metabolomics data from 71 HIV-negative, non-smoking, premenopausal women without other sexually transmitted infections, grouped by three-visit HPV trajectories: persistent negative (NNN, n=20), late incident positivity (NNP, n=9), conversion with persistence (NPP, n=13), clearance after prior positivity (PPN, n=16), and persistent positive (PPP, n=13). After detection-based filtering, 186 putative and 64 quantitatively estimated metabolites were retained for integrated univariate, multivariate, network, pathway, and machine learning analyses. Global class separation was weak by PERMANOVA and by five-class classification, indicating that the vaginal metabolome does not reorganize broadly across all HPV states. In contrast, trajectory-specific signals were reproducible. The strongest pairwise contrast was NNP versus PPP (best cross-validated ROC AUC 0.778; permutation p=0.039). Glycolic acid was the dominant single metabolite, particularly for NNP versus PPP (Mann-Whitney p=6.96x10^-4, FDR=0.0446, AUROC=0.902; detection 88.9% versus 15.4%; combined abundance+detection FDR=0.0010). Persistent positivity was characterized by a focused uracil-high, methyl-donor/redox-low signature, including lower glycolic acid, S-adenosylmethionine, NAD+, and betaine, together with higher uracil. Ratio mining further sharpened discrimination, with uracil/S-adenosylmethionine and uracil/creatinine among the best PPP classifiers, and glucose 1-phosphate/isovaleric acid-valeric acid strongly separating NNP from NPP. These data support a model in which HPV trajectory is encoded by targeted metabolic states rather than a diffuse HPV-positive versus HPV-negative metabolomic shift.